Lining: Beware Of The Combination Of Trade Protectionism And The New China Threat Theory

In February 2nd, Barber, an interview with the financial times, interviewed an interview with Premier Wen Jiabao.

China's Bob question: Premier Wen, now we know that the international financial crisis is at least from the US. There are many mistakes in the field of risk management and supervision in the United States. But some people say that part of the financial crisis is also due to the imbalance of the world economy. For example, they pointed out that China has $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. How do you respond to those who hold this view?

Wen Jiabao said: I think this view is absurd.

The financial crisis is the result of the serious imbalance of the economy of some economies, mainly the long-term double deficits and the high consumption maintained by borrowing.

For some financial institutions, they lose their effective supervision over a long period of time, so that they can use the high leverage to get huge profits. Once the bubble burst, the disaster will be left to the world.

A large developing country with a population of 1 billion 300 million now has a per capita GDP level of only 1/16 of that of the United Kingdom.

We urgently need capital to build and improve people's livelihood.

Those who overspend on borrowing and in turn blame others for lending money to him are not right and wrong?

There is a saying in China that it is called pig eight quit.

When I talked about this point in Davos, we all agreed.

At the same time, according to the twenty-first Century economic report, our reporter learned from the close business department that the Chinese government will respond positively to the India government's announcement of the ban on imports of Chinese toys in January 23rd within the next 6 months.

The official said, "the Chinese government will make a solemn protest against the incident. If the practice of India seriously violates the WTO agreement and violates its commitments when it joins WTO, the Chinese government will take India to the WTO dispute settlement body (DSB)."

Here, we can first be sure that whether Barber's question (the world financial crisis stems from China's high foreign exchange reserves), or the US new finance minister endorsed Obama's accusation of China's exchange rate issue, the fact that the US has been pressing China through the RMB exchange rate has not been a matter of two days, nor is it an isolated one, but a series of organized and planned activities.

Similarly, India's restriction on the importation of Chinese toy products is not an isolated case or case. Just over a decade ago, the Automobile Association headed by the European Union and the United States made an unfair ruling on the decision of China's auto parts to appeal to WTO and WTO.

Moreover, according to the twenty-first Century economic report, after nearly a year and a half of investigation, the European Union recently passed anti-dumping sanctions against screws and nuts fasteners from China, with 15 votes in favour and 12 votes against it.

This means that an average of 80% anti-dumping duty will be imposed on products which constitute dumping products for a period of 5 years.

Dong Shizhong, a professor at Fudan University's law school and an expert group of WTO dispute settlement body, is worried about this (India's restrictions on the importation of Chinese toys). With the gradual spread of the economic recession in the world, more trade barriers between countries will emerge.

It should be said that with the spread of the financial crisis to the real economy, it is the most effective way to deal with the financial crisis that all countries adopt a cooperative attitude to tide over the difficulties. In November 2008, the leaders of the G20 summit held in the United States also made clear that they should strengthen cooperation, put an end to trade protectionism and jointly cope with the financial crisis.

However, the financial crisis is no longer in the past. The voice of the G20 summit still linger in our ears, but the trade protectionism led by the United States has risen, trade frictions and accusations of mutual accusation are not conducive to cooperation.

And there is a tendency for us to pay attention to these discordant voices, most of which are directed against China.

Therefore, I believe that with the spread of the financial crisis, the new trade protectionism is coming along with the new China threat theory, and the intention is obvious for China.

For the new trade protectionism, I believe that under the background of the financial crisis, the protectionism adopted by various countries in order to protect their own economy has obvious awareness of self-help.

The new China threat theory is closely related to the previous China threat theory.

First, the new China threat theory does not first appear in the form of China threat, but appears in the face of "China's evil waters", for example, denying the source of the world financial crisis to China's high foreign exchange reserves.

Second, the former China threat theory was based on the expansion of foreign resources in China's pition, and China's development led to a shortage of resources in the world, such as the rapid development of China pushed up the price of oil and so on.

But the new threat is less than the sound. On the contrary, China has high foreign exchange reserves and does not save the other economy. The implication is that China does not expand its responsibility as an excuse.

Third, the past China threat theory came from jealousy of China and fear of China's rise. Many times, many countries took trouble in making trouble, and then fought a war of words.

But now the Chinese threat theory is based on real trade protection measures, and you also find that people have restricted the importation of your goods, and then, after resorting to legal proceedings, until the lawsuit is over, the purpose of others is also achieved.

For example, India's restriction on the import of Chinese toy products is a clear example.

What is most unfavorable to China now is the combination of new trade protectionism and the new China threat theory.

We used to adopt the slogan "slogan, action and action", that is to say, against the threat and realism of China, we will expose their essence by seeking truth from facts and facts, which will have a substantial impact on our economic development.

However, the combination of the new China threat theory and the new trade protectionism has a real impact on China's economy and employment. For example, under the current financial crisis, India's restrictions on the import of toy enterprises in China are no doubt an aggravation for our export limited toy enterprises, which is a blow to China's toy enterprises.

According to India media reports, from 1992 to 2003, India toy manufacturers imported 1 million 200 thousand toys from China every week.

Especially after 1997, Chinese toys once occupied 80% of India's market.

"Although India is not a major country in our exports, the impact will definitely exist, especially on the negative impact on morale of the enterprises."

Guo Zhuocai, vice president of China Toy Association, said, "but the toy industry's production chain is very long. It involves more than 20 industries, such as textiles, metal processing, plastics and chemical industry. After nearly 30 years of development, China's toy industry is already quite mature. No matter from the raw material reserve and the technology of adding labor, it is not comparable to the general country."

Therefore, we must guard against the combination of this new trade protectionism and the new China threat theory. We must take early measures to formulate corresponding contingency plans and countermeasures. We can not be overthrown by China Threat Theory in the period of rapid development of the world economy, and can not be overthrown by the "China Threat Theory" in the world economic downturn.