International Oil Price Breaks Through 100 US Dollar Mark &Nbsp; Domestic Price Rises Next Week.

Since mid October, it has been driven by multiple benefits.

In the past six weeks, five major positive factors have pushed international oil prices "step by step" from around $80 a barrel to "100 yuan mark".

First, the US economy began this spring and accelerated rapidly due to the negative effects of the Japanese earthquake.

Second, the supply of global crude oil market is tightening.

On the one hand, as the world's largest consumer of crude oil, the US crude oil inventories have declined significantly this year, the current scale has been 5% lower than the average inventory level in the past five years. On the other hand, the traditional demand for heating in winter has arrived, and the market effect of Libya's crude oil capacity recovery has been completely reduced.

Moreover, despite the fact that the geopolitical situation in Egypt and Libya has greatly improved, Iran, another major oil exporter in the world, is facing international trade sanctions for its suspected nuclear weapons development. Meanwhile, oil production in Nigeria, the main oil producing country of West Africa, has been harmed by the "devastation" of oil leakage, theft and corruption.

This will undoubtedly cause enormous pressure on global crude oil supply mitigation.

In addition, soaring demand for crude oil from emerging markets in the Asia Pacific and Latin America has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the original market.

According to data released by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the daily output of crude oil will increase from 88 million barrels per day in 2011 to 93 million barrels per day in 2015.

Finally, investors' expectations for the long-term trend of international oil prices have also helped fuel oil prices.

Official data show that since October, large global financial institutions have been overweight for crude oil futures long positions, which means that speculators believe that the international oil price reappears and the investment profit potential is getting closer and closer.

However, after the international oil price really touched the barrier of $100 per barrel, investors' concerns shifted to fundamentals again.

At present, due to the fact that the spread and deepening of the European debt crisis has not been substantially resolved, all authorities have lowered the forecast of global economic growth next year, and the degree of strong demand for crude oil has also been questioned.

Against this background, international oil prices rested for less than two trading days at a level of only 100 dollars per barrel, and then dropped again, ending last week's trading at the price of $96.41 a barrel.

What needs to be pointed out is that the international oil price's future callback degree is far from 80% of the previous global recession.

At present, the market generally believes that, as the international oil price falls by nearly 25% this summer, its future "fall point" should not exceed this scope.

What's more, the supporting factors mentioned above will continue to exist in the short run. Even if the international oil price falls, it can only be achieved by a slow callback in the context of "multi air confrontation".

In fact, the price trend of other major commodity categories in the bulk commodity market reflects exactly the "entanglement" situation of international oil prices: stimulated by rising demand under the easing policy signal, and "precaution against the weakness of the short and medium term economy".

Taking into account the price of international precious metals and American wheat, except for Brent oil price and US corn futures, the price gains of mid and long term are still worth looking forward to when Zhou Shangyang is short term pressure commodity market.