Li Yige Column: Resolutely Curb The Signs Of Rising Housing Prices

Yi Ge Li

Recently, the news of Shenzhen and Shanghai property market movements has touched everyone's attention. In April 22nd, the Shenzhen Housing Construction Bureau responded to the news that there was news that the secondary housing prices in Shenzhen rose by 9.7% in the first quarter, which was not in line with the facts. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the price of new houses in Shenzhen increased by 1% in the first quarter of this year, and the second-hand houses rose by 2.8%. House prices are generally stable and slightly rising.

Shenzhen property market has its particularity. Shenzhen has many science and technology enterprises, active financial markets, and many years of maintaining a net population inflow. Housing demand is relatively strong. However, due to limited land space, less land for construction can be built, and new commercial housing is limited. Urban renewal based on urban villages is not fast enough. Under such a strong tension of supply and demand, housing prices are hard to get down, and once external factors stir up, they will rise quickly.

The wave of the property market in Shenzhen and Shanghai is related to some phenomena. For example, individual buildings reproduce the magnificent scenery of long queues, tens of thousands of luxury housing sources "seconds light"; for example, individual housing loans may act as leverage; and, again, some district owners jointly discuss the listing price will be very high. Nor does it exclude individual intermediaries and self media hype. In addition, there are differences between consumers' actual feelings and data based on sampling statistics. In fact, only a small number of new properties sell well, and a small number of second-hand houses rise rapidly, but the projection to buyers will be mistaken for a wide range.

However, the recent changes in housing prices, although only in a small number of real estate, individual areas, still worthy of vigilance. This round of real estate regulation was launched in October 2016 and did not show effectiveness until the second half of 2018. Housing prices are uncomfortable? It is false to say that it is not unpleasant. After all, over the past 10 years or so, whatever house can be sold, but it is not so bad. In the 2018-2019 years, the total sales volume of the industry has also been continuously updated. People's inertia always takes the past to look at the future, especially the friends of the sales lines of Housing enterprises. They can't wait for 1 houses and 10 people to grab the past scenes that can last year. But the rational side tells us that this is almost sleepy, and the environment of the second half of the property market is different from that of the first half.

Almost in the season when the property market just entered this round of adjustment, I said in the article that we should hold the house price for 5 years. The so-called 5 year is only a general estimate; the so-called policy is not to relax the restriction and restriction policy. From a macro perspective, it is to make room for the establishment of a long-term mechanism for real estate; from a micro perspective, it is to set aside time for people to invest in housing.

Friends who are paying close attention to the macro field know that real estate occupies too much social resources. Taking credit as an example, Guo Shuqing, then chairman of the CBRC in April 2017, said that real estate related loans had exceeded 1/3 of total credit. To put it in a popular saying, which industry does not need funds, you take 1/3 of the real estate industry, and let other industries live? Objectively speaking, the financial authorities have done quite well in controlling the real estate financial risks these years.

Microscopically speaking, in the past many years, investment in housing has gained high profits and basically no risk. This has enabled a large number of Chinese people to develop the investment preference of buying houses. Some friends, with a savings of 23 million, feel that there is a risk in buying money and entering the stock market. If they want to buy a house, they will buy a solid house, so they always ask me when to buy a house and where to buy it.

After the adjustment of the property market in the second half of 2018, the new houses were basically controlled by the government's price limits, and the second-hand houses in many hot cities fell slowly. But the turnover is not bad. Both the total sales of the industry and the performance of the mainstream Housing enterprises are increasing. This shows that housing prices drop a little bit does not matter, will not affect the normal development of real estate.

This is a hard won adjustment and control, and must be kept. The meaning of keeping in mind is, first of all, not to let house prices rebound. Under the epidemic, one of the important things is to cut costs for enterprises. The two is to give blood to the real economy, especially small and medium enterprises. If the illegal flow of funds into the real estate market is essentially pumping the blood of the real economy, the rise in house prices is a significant increase in the cost of enterprises and society.

The Department in charge is always vigilant. In April 23rd, the Shanghai headquarters of the people's Bank of China held a symposium on real estate credit in Shanghai, calling for commercial banks to adhere to the position of "housing instead of speculation", strictly prohibit the use of real estate as a risk mortgage, and break through the requirements of credit policies in disguised form through personal consumption loans and operating loans, and provide funds for buyers by violated regulations, which will affect the smooth and healthy development of the real estate market. Shenzhen also announced that it would adjust the market by increasing supply to ensure the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.