Demand Is Weak. Acrylonitrile Is Slowing Down.

Last week, the price of domestic acrylonitrile market gradually stopped rising near the spot of 16000 yuan / ton, and the negotiation volume dropped to 15600-15800 yuan / ton in succession, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market also weakened.

Under the background of insufficient supply, downstream demand is slightly weak, which is a direct factor to restrain the current price rising of acrylonitrile market.

To further see, acrylonitrile main downstream three major products, acrylic fiber industry because of the terminal demand is flat, factory production profit is not good, start load is not high, since the beginning of most of the time remained at 70% up and down.

After entering the May, acrylic fiber production gradually reached the edge of losses. With the Jilin chemical fiber and Hangzhou Bay stopping in succession, the overall operating rate dropped to less than 60%, thereby reducing the consumption of acrylonitrile.

In addition, it is reported that acrylonitrile manufacturers sell acrylonitrile raw materials at a lower price, which is intended to suppress the high price of the acrylonitrile spot market and also directly inhibit the rise of acrylonitrile.

Coupled with the strengthening of environmental protection and safety supervision, the enthusiasm of buyers in the middle and lower reaches has also declined.

In addition, the mentality of the business has changed, the middlemen are hard to sell at high prices, and they lack confidence in the long term market, so the offer has also come down. The focus of the paction has been gradually reduced to 15700 yuan / ton from the high-end 16200 yuan / ton.

Starting and changing of acrylonitrile main downstream products

Source: lung Chung

Operation situation of acrylic fiber enterprises in China

Unit: 10000 tons / year

Source: lung Chung

In addition to acrylic fiber, acrylonitrile and other two downstream ABS and acrylamide products have been in stable operation before, ABS remained near 90%, acrylamide remained between 65-70%.

However, the demand for terminals has also shown signs of weakness in recent days. The performance of ABS has declined, and production profits have also been squeezed. Acrylamide and polyacrylamide also show such a trend, and as the weather gets hotter, there is also a downward trend in the future.

Overall, however, the supply of acrylonitrile is still insufficient, and manufacturers' overall quotas are still strong, and spot market prices are not at risk of falling in the near future.

The current price correction is also based on the actual performance of the supply and demand side, and spot prices need to remove some of the bubbles.

This week, acrylonitrile manufacturers are coming to the end of the month. Traders generally estimate Sinopec clearing price at 15000 yuan / ton, and the spot market price is expected to remain at 15500 yuan / ton.