In The Two Quarter Of 2019, Viscose Or Get Out Of The Low Price Dilemma.

I. market quotation

As of April 16th, the average price of domestic 1.2D viscose staple fiber was 12822 yuan / ton, up 1.76% from the beginning of the month, or 222 yuan / ton, down 3.67%.

The middle and high-end factories offer a price of 13000-13200 yuan / ton.

Judging from the overall market in April, the market of viscose staple has been rising all the way, and there is a strong desire to turn losses into profits on the tail of "gold three silver four".

Two, industrial chain situation

The upstream cotton short staple is stagnant and stabilized, and a small number of pactions have been made in the market. However, due to the general operating rate of cotton and cotton plants, the output rate of cotton lint is relatively low, and the price of cottonseed is rising, which supports manufacturers' confidence in price.

Downstream chemical fiber factory, refined cotton plant operating rate is not high, imported cotton short price is low, manufacturers purchase according to need, more cautious, restricting the domestic cotton short pile turnover.

Cotton short staple buying and selling, its market will remain relatively stable.

The quality of cotton short staple in Shandong is better than the price of 3500-3900 yuan / ton, the food price is 4000 yuan / ton, the individual price is 4300 yuan / ton, the level is flat, the industrial grade cotton lint in Xinjiang is priced at 3300 yuan / ton, the price is flat, the price is 2900-3000 yuan / ton, the price is no market, and there are few pactions.

According to Buyi statistics, in 2019 1-3, viscose staple fiber output was around 950 thousand tons. In the first quarter, the inventory was around 400 thousand tons, and the sales rate of the whole industry was only 57.89%.

In 2019 1-3, the market price of viscose staple fiber was 13711 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and the average price of viscose staple fiber market was 12600 yuan / ton at the end of March, the decrease was 8.1%.

Judging from production and sales data and price data, viscose staple fiber is readjusting its price after fully released capacity.

From mid January to before the Spring Festival, the viscose factory concentrated on shipping and sold about 300 thousand tons of goods. After that, downstream cotton yarn factories and middlemen paid fast and showed positive results.

At that time, the price of viscose reached the lowest price in the first quarter. The market generally believed that this was a positive sign of sticky glue reaching the bottom.

Some of the capacity that had already been forced to stop production was reopened, and during the Spring Festival, when the market stopped, the expected capacity of the industry that was expected to be eliminated was not completely eliminated. The cotton yarn of the first person once again looked at the viscose, which made the viscose fall again from the 13711 yuan / ton in March to 12822 yuan / ton, down 6.48% yuan, or 889 yuan / ton.

From the above we can see that in recent months, the operation of the viscose market has shown a unilateral decline.

This leads to fewer and fewer people engaged in viscose trade and industry, which means that the funds in this industry are decreasing, so the viscose market may go into a vicious circle.

From the two quarter, there was a significant macroeconomic policy favorable to the textile industry, and also had a major impact on viscose enterprises.

In April 1st, value added tax will be reduced, and social security rates will be lowered in May 1st.

After the tax rate dropped by 3 percentage points, enterprises paid less than 100 tons of cotton yarn 1 tons per production.

The social security rate is reduced by 4%, and enterprises can save 1200 yuan per person.

A number of textile enterprises said that the tax cut and fee reduction would lighten the burden of enterprises and raise the level of profitability, so as to facilitate the light load of enterprises. At the same time, the whole operation cost of cotton spinning industry chain will also decline, and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises in the international market.

Three, summary

Although the viscose business in this round suffered a lot of losses, the price of viscose once appeared at the lowest price of 12500 yuan / ton in March, and the loss was expected to be between 1000-1500 yuan.

So the fall of the 3% tax point will not bring too much bad profits to the viscose staple market, which is still in the bottom.

The deep loss of viscose staple enterprises will not consider giving up the 3% tax points to downstream customers, because the 3% tax points will drop, to some extent, viscose staple fiber factory will go out of the first step of deep loss.

For the two quarter of the viscose market, first of all, viscose practitioners should adjust their mindset, do not be intimidated by low prices, adjust the operating rate of the industry, actively go to inventory, and downstream yarn manufacturers actively participate in the game to help the viscose industry out of the trough.

In the short term, the price of viscose is expected to have a slight increase, which is about 200-300 yuan / ton, and the long-term cooperation and competition between the lower reaches should be seen.

(part of the source of information)