The Cotton Market Is Supported By Many Stages.

Judging from this year's trend, although commodities are basically rising, differentiation is very obvious.

As the most important indicator of inflation, gold and crude oil did not show a marked rise, especially in the gold market, basically in a concussion process, the main agricultural products are basically low volatility trend.

Logically speaking, the best targets for inflation are crude oil and gold. Crude oil acts as a cost anchor for commodity markets, and gold plays a more important role in resisting inflation.

If we fail to see that the two markets have a more decisive upward trend, it is hard to say that inflation will come, so we should pay more attention to the fundamentals.

Back to the cotton industry, the most important aspect of this year's macroeconomic aspect is the depreciation of the renminbi.

At the same time, when the renminbi depreciates, our direct competitors, such as India and Vietnam

But it did not depreciate.

The depreciation of the RMB has brought double benefits to China's cotton textile market: first, the depreciation of the RMB is conducive to the export market of domestic textile and clothing and domestic consumption; secondly, the depreciation of the renminbi has increased the cost of imported goods and raised the demand for domestic raw materials.

Due to the impact of the economic situation, the process of RMB depreciation is still continuing, and its positive impact on the textile industry is continuing.

In the short term, the cotton market is supported by a number of phased factors and shows strong performance.

First of all, pportation problems in Xinjiang are outstanding this year.

It should be said that in previous years, the pport market in Xinjiang is relatively tight. After all, Xinjiang is vast and abundant, and many resources and fruits need to go out.

But this year faces several new situations: first, the new pport policy has been strictly controlled this year, resulting in insufficient pport capacity and substantial increase in freight rates.

At present, the situation in Xinjiang is that the train skins are basically not found, and the freight rate has increased to over 1000.

Two, the rise in commodity prices this year, especially the rise in coal prices, is a great pressure on the government.

In order to solve the key problems first, the main pportation capacity is tilted to more important varieties such as coal, so the capacity allocated to cotton is limited.

Third, the weather is bad this year, and the winter is earlier and colder, which adds additional obstacles to pportation.

Secondly, at present

The demand for replenishment is relatively strong, supporting the spot market.

Textile enterprises once added a large number of national cotton stores in September to cope with the current market.

According to the data at the end of the year, as of the end of September, the textile industry had an industrial inventory of 700 thousand tons, and traders had a commercial inventory of 500 thousand tons. According to the consumption of 650 thousand tons per month, the current circulation of cotton resources in the market was less than 300 thousand tons, and it did not adhere to the end of November.

At present, the demand for replenishment of textile enterprises is already imminent.

Recently, Xinjiang's textile enterprises in the mainland have increased their enquiries, and procurement has gradually emerged, which has boosted the confidence of the cotton mill.

However, due to the problem of Xinjiang, although the overall market is not short of cotton, the resources of the mainland market are high and high.

Again, at present

Export situation is better, India new flower listing speed is slow, supporting the international market.

In the US cotton market, export statistics are very good this year.

According to the latest data, the US cotton weekly export volume has reached 2 million 320 thousand packages, an increase of 60% over the previous year, and an increase of 46.7% over the past 5 years. The US cotton has not shipped 4 million 75 thousand packages, an increase of 59% over the previous year, a 11.1% decrease over the past 5 years, and a total export of 6 million 397 thousand packages, an increase of 59% over the previous year, with an increase over the past 5 years.

Exports were significantly supported by the growth of China and Vietnam, of which Vietnam increased from 380 thousand packages last year to 950 thousand packages, and China increased from 130 thousand packages last year to 810 thousand packages.

As China's imports have quotas at the end of the year, the support for late exports will be significantly reduced.

In India, because of the currency reform, the new flower listing rate is slow.

However, with the circulation of new currencies and quickening of the sale of seed cotton, the new flower market has supplemented the market supply, and cotton prices have dropped recently.