Trump Threatened To Impose A 45% High Tariff On Chinese Imports.

Statistics in 2016 1~9 show that China's exports to the United States are mostly telecommunications equipment ($56 billion), office facilities ($47 billion), and electronic equipment ($33 billion).

($24 billion), furniture ($16 billion).

China's largest reliance on the United States is furniture, and exports to the United States account for 39% of total furniture exports, followed by metal ores and scrap metals (33%), footwear (33%), telecommunications and recording equipment (29%), and handbags (26%).

If the United States rises to China

Chinese exporters have limited capacity to absorb the US Tariffs and increase their impact because their profits are not high (5%).

The increase in tariffs will go to the prices of Chinese exports.

Assuming that US tariffs on China rise from 2.8% to 15%, 30% and 45%, China's exports to the United States will be severely compromised, which will decrease by 21%, 46%, and 72% respectively. However, the corresponding decline in China's total exports in the medium term will be much smaller, 4%, 8% and 13% respectively.

Once a country's currency manipulation is determined, the United States will not only impose pressure on its government to adjust its exchange rate policy through IMF, but also more likely to retaliate through trade means.

Trump's election may exacerbate China's capital outflow, thus increasing the pressure of RMB depreciation in the medium term.

45% of customs duties! This is too! At this time, many small partners panic.

But after careful analysis, although the United States is China's largest export target, China is actually against the United States.

Openness is shrinking. According to Morgan Stanley's estimate, even if 45% of punitive tariffs are mentioned, China's total exports will only drop by 13%.

The share of China's total exports to the US was 17% to 21% from five years ago, but contributed 43% to China's trade surplus.

However, it is unlikely that the US will substantially raise tariffs. The Trump administration will first communicate with the domestic and foreign authorities before raising tariffs. After the passage of the bill, it will also go through a long period in China.

Examination.

In addition, WTO has a series of mechanisms to solve trade disputes. The US as a WTO member should give priority to WTO in settling trade disputes.

So the United States is unlikely to implement a tighter trade policy in China in the short term.