Banking Risks Are Frequent, Bad Rates Are Rising, And Prospects For Economic Recovery Are Unpredictable.

With the growth of China's economy, China's commercial banks are facing the pressure of asset quality deterioration.

According to the CBRC statistics, by June this year, the bad rate of commercial banks has been rebounded for 15 consecutive quarters, from 0.94% to 1.75%, and loans for concern have also climbed to 4.03% continuously.

Together, the risk loans of banks account for 5.8%, and the risk loans amount to 4 trillion and 760 billion yuan.

Judging from the current situation, because of the arduous task of economic restructuring, the recovery of China's economy will be difficult in the short term. Therefore, the total amount of non-performing assets actually contained in the financial system and the real economy will continue to rise in the coming period.

At present, there are great differences in the estimation of bank's bad rate in the market.

In my view, "bad plus attention loan" should be a relatively reliable indicator of potential non-performing assets in the near future.

In addition to bank credit, other non-performing assets need to be considered, including bad assets such as shadow banking (such as trust loans, entrusted loans, etc.), accounts receivable and assets in the field of corporate bonds.

No matter how to estimate banks.

In recent years, the rate of bad rate rising is an indisputable fact, and the bad assets of banks have not yet been fully exposed.

In view of the concentration of non-performing assets, in addition to some industries with serious excess capacity, non-performing assets will show more regional and special customer aggregation characteristics.

In the slow pition of old industrial areas (such as the three northeastern provinces) and the rapid development of energy resources in the past few years, the relatively unitary industrial structure and the more difficult economic downturn period, there may be concentrated credit risk exposure.

In recent years, under the supervision of regulatory authorities, banks have stepped up efforts to support small and micro enterprises.

According to the central bank's statistics, at the end of 6 in 2016, the balance of loans for small and micro enterprises was 19 trillion and 310 billion yuan, an increase of 15.5% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 1 percentage points higher than the end of last quarter, which was 4.6 and 8.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period.

The loan balance of small and micro enterprises accounted for 30.7% of the loan balance of enterprises, 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

In the first half of this year, loans for small and micro businesses increased by 1 trillion and 480 billion yuan, an increase of 495 billion 400 million yuan compared with the same period last year, accounting for 36.3% of the total increase in enterprises over the same period, 11 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

Affected by the slowdown in economic growth, the relative characteristics of small and micro enterprises

Characteristics are beginning to show.

According to the data disclosed by some listed banks, the bad rate of small and micro enterprises has been significantly higher than other loan averages.

The situation of bad assets of banks in the next one or two years can be divided into two parts: stock and increment.

From the stock perspective, because the risk has not been fully exposed, especially the impact of economic slowdown on small and micro enterprises will continue in a longer period of time, the process of eliminating backward production capacity has not yet ended, coupled with the further integration of some traditional industries, there may be "no cover" situation in the next one or two years, bringing the bad rate to continue to rise.

The awareness of risk prevention has been greatly enhanced, the binding mechanism has been further improved, and the growth rate of new non-performing assets has been effectively controlled.

Debt to equity swap is only a kind of technical means to deal with bad assets. It is necessary to combine the comprehensive disposal methods including participation in governance, merger and reorganization and additional investment, so as to revitalize these enterprises.

Summing up the past cases of debt to equity swap in the Great Wall assets, more successful debt to equity swap projects are mostly "time for space", so that short-term debt costs are high, temporary difficulties are encountered, but long-term development prospects remain, and industry development advantages are clear.