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How Does Carney View The Issue Of Euro Withdrawal?

2016/5/12 20:16:00 35

CarneyEuro RetreatEconomic Policy

The Bank of England's monetary policy committee will release its latest economic growth and inflation expectations in a quarterly report on Thursday.

Analysts said the drag on the uncertainty surrounding the referendum could prompt the Bank of England to cut down.

economic growth

Estimated below the long-term average.

On Wednesday, the UK's industrial output rate fell 0.2% in March, down 0.4% from the expected value. The UK's manufacturing output in March dropped by 1.9%, the biggest drop in May 2013.

In the late week of Sanya, sterling / dollar rebounded to 1.4466 at the end of the week, and fell rapidly to 1.4393 after data in the UK, but then rebounded to 1.4445.

Investec believes that in the quarterly inflation report released on Thursday, the UK's economic growth forecast is likely to be lowered.

But analysts say the main inflation forecasts are unlikely to be revised because of the recent decline in the pound's exchange rate and the rebound in global oil prices.

Central bank governor Carney will hold a press conference when the Bank of England's policy decisions and quarterly economic forecasts are announced.

Previously, he called the decision to withdraw from Europe the biggest domestic risk facing financial stability in the United Kingdom, and the central bank has said that the domestic economy is in favor of

European Union

The status of Member States.

Capital Economics economist Paul Hollingsworth said: "the governor of the central bank is very vigilant at the thought of taking part in the dispute over Europe. That is to say, Carney may stress that the uncertainty of the referendum outcome is affecting the economy.

Such a statement will undoubtedly be interpreted as supporting Europe.

There are only six weeks left from the referendum in June. At present, the proportion of the people who support the withdrawal from the EU and those who remain in the EU are evenly matched.

Sterling / US dollar fell by about 7% between mid 11 and mid 4, and the pound rebounded sharply after President Obama (Barack Obama) expressed support for Britain to stay in Europe.

But Obama's polls still show support.

Euro retreat

The proportion of those who stay with Europe is the same. Investors are worried about some signs of rekindling.

RBC Capital Markets, a foreign exchange strategist at Adam Cole, said the EU referendum was "very uncertain" for investors.

Investec Bank pointed out that after experiencing a period of risk aversion leading the market, risk assets appeared to stabilize, stabilize and rebound.

Despite the improvement in risk appetite, sterling / US dollar and Sterling continued to trade with the euro, and its customers became more cautious as the EU referendum approached.

In addition, a survey showed that about 80% of the largest British companies had hedged, such as the referendum, the result is the risk of a sharp drop in the euro and the pound, which is expected to drop by 12% on average.


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