RMB Joining SDR Basket Is A Big Probability Event.

The hard standard RMB of SDR currency has reached the relevant technical conditions. The RMB meets the export threshold requirements, and the index of free use is relatively high, and has been approved by the evaluation report. IMF also affirmed the overall progress of RMB internationalization and held a forward-looking perspective. Official institutions have no access restrictions on the use of the renminbi, and the applicable exchange rates and interest rates have also been marketed.

In addition, Liang Hong believes that the RMB does not constitute a challenge to the US dollar, and the internationalization of RMB is conducive to the economic balance between China and the United States. The excessive dependence of international economic activities on the US dollar and the resulting trade imbalance are also a burden to the United States. China's trade surplus with the United States continued to accumulate US Treasury bonds. The internationalization of the RMB can naturally correct the Sino US trade imbalance.

Liang Hong pointed out that SDR's status is similar to credit rating, and the "rating" will directly or indirectly increase the demand for RMB assets and especially security assets. And this is a small share of the story of big volume: RMB's share in international reserves is expected to reach 7.8% by 2020, or about 7 trillion and 100 billion yuan. By comparison, the stock of China's treasury bonds is only 9 trillion and 200 billion yuan.

More importantly, China's accession SDR The efforts of the basket have been transformed into an irreversible process of financial liberalization, which will have a profound impact on China's economy. Although the background of some reform measures is to solve the technical barriers to the inclusion of the basket, the impact of the reform and opening up pattern on China's financial industry is comparable to that of that year. WTO The promotion of the real economy. Even if the renminbi fails to join the basket, the reform measures that have been introduced will not be able to turn back.

According to the current method, the weight of 14~16% can be obtained if RMB is added to the basket. The weight should be weighted according to the export share and the external reserve share. The RMB lacks the data of the foreign reserves share. The calculation is only considered. Export index This is a basic reference. Finally, it is decided that the board still needs to be judged. It is not ruled out that the admission of RMB may be accompanied by certain conditions or lower weights.

Liang Hong said that adding renminbi to the basket is of great symbolic significance. If accepted, it will be the first truly new, first developing country in the post Bretton Woods system and the first SDR currency to be added freely. IMF Member States will automatically form an exposure of RMB about US $39 billion 200 million through the SDR held by the company (calculated by 14% weight). Assets and liabilities calculated with SDR will be revalued, including IMF loans, and SDR interest rates will also be raised. After that, China can provide RMB with IMF funds, participate in crisis relief and other operations. In addition, the inclusion of basket will definitely increase the use of RMB in the IMF mechanism.

The short-term impact of the basket on the RMB exchange rate is uncertain, but in the medium term it is a definite appreciation factor. In the short term, the market may be exhilarated, and in anticipation of sufficient circumstances, it may also turn to short-term weakness. In the medium term, the increase in the use of reserve currencies will provide a support for the renminbi. At the end of 2016, the exchange rate forecast remained unchanged at 6.5 yuan / US dollar.