The Development Plan Of The Yangtze River Economic Belt Or Shanghai As The Leader

Media quoted sources as saying that the Yangtze River economic belt development plan has been submitted to the State Council. It can be announced only after the executive meeting of the State Council is approved. The development plan of the Yangtze River economic belt has set specific targets for the development of 11 provinces and cities.

According to surging news reports, last September, the State Council issued "relying on golden watercourse Guiding opinions on promoting the development of the Yangtze River economic belt, since then, Anhui, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Chongqing And other provinces and cities have promulgated the implementation opinions. Compared with the "guiding opinions", the content of the development plan of the Yangtze River economic belt is more operable. It is the "landing" of the "guidance". There will be many contents. Besides transportation and infrastructure, it will also involve industrial division of labor, coordination of mechanism and system, talents and tourism.

The positioning of 11 provinces and cities will continue. Guiding Opinions In accordance with the location of the location of the location: Shanghai as the leader, "three big two small" city group configuration.

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In a report released in May 20th, Citigroup believes that the growth rate of China's GDP may be only 5% after the change of the "Keqiang index", industrial output and nominal GDP.

In April, China's official GDP grew by 7% in the first quarter, a 6 year low. Citigroup said in its April report that 7% of official data was far overvalued and the actual performance should be below 6%.

Citigroup's latest report continues to argue that China's economy is far worse than official data. China's economy has fallen into a stalemate of the real effective exchange rate of RMB, the decline of credit growth and the diminished interest rate effect.

Citigroup's "Keqiang index" mentioned earlier was made by Premier Li Keqiang in 2007 when he was serving as secretary of the Liaoning provincial Party committee. Li Keqiang said at that time he preferred to analyze the economic situation through three indicators of electricity consumption, railway freight volume and loan volume. A number of financial institutions referred to the "strong index", the first quarter of China's GDP "water".

Ren Zeping, a macroeconomic analyst at Guotai Junan, once said in the research report that since the two quarter of 2014, the power generation, crude steel output and railway freight volume have deviated from industrial production and GDP. The degree of divergence has been close to the level of -2009 at the beginning of 2008. Recently, the divergence between our combined industrial production index and the official growth rate of industrial added value has again appeared and expanded. This has occurred since the 2 quarter of 2014, which means that the actual economic growth is much lower than the official data.

Since the two quarter, China's economy has not improved and its economic indicators continue downward. In April, CPI and PPI data were not as good as expected. CPI has been in the "1" era for eight consecutive months, while PPI has declined for thirty-sixth consecutive months.

Meanwhile, the growth of industrial added value, fixed assets investment and retail sales in April were not as good as expected. The export volume in April this year dropped by 6.4% compared with the same period last week, while imports declined by 16.2%, which declined for two consecutive figures in fourth months.

Citigroup also believes that the policy level will be deregulation of credit, the central bank to expand the balance sheet tilt.

In fact, China has escorted steady growth, and monetary policy and fiscal policy have come together. In less than six months, China's central bank has cut interest rates three times and two times. At the same time, the NDRC is deregulation of corporate bond issuance, and it is not subject to the quantitative index of debt issuing enterprises for the financing of high quality enterprises issuing bonds for seven major investment projects and so on.

Citigroup also expects exchange rate policy will not be adjusted in the short term, but the floating range of RMB exchange rate is likely to expand next year.