RMB Spot Exchange Rate Closed 6.2191 Forecast 2% Appreciation

< p > China's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > > foreign exchange < /a > trading center data show that the 14 yuan to the US dollar spot exchange rate closed at 6.2191, which is 78 points lower than the closing price of the previous trading day 6.2113.

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< p > central bank data show that on the 14 day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1531, which was 36 basis points lower than the central parity (6.1495) of the previous trading day.

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This year, the biggest depreciation of the RMB exchange rate since the P reform has caused people's concern about the capital outflow. Some financial people even predicted that the RMB and RMB assets would collapse.

However, most institutions believe that the current RMB devaluation is the result of deliberately a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" and "central bank /a". The aim is to change the market's expectation of RMB's one-way appreciation and prepare for the internationalization of RMB.

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< p > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Deutsche Bank < /a > believes that the RMB will continue to attract capital inflow into account of China's higher economic growth, higher interest rate level and capital account liberalization. It is expected that it will appreciate 2% in the next 12 months.

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< p > deutsche bank analysts pointed out four reasons in the report: < /p >

< p > first, China's growth rate will still be higher than all other major economies, so it will continue to attract foreign investment; < /p >

< p > Second, China's interest rate will continue to be higher than the corresponding interest rates of major trading partners, and the gap may widen further; < /p >

< p > Third, China's open capital account reform will attract more capital inflows and invest in China's bond and stock markets; < /p >

< p > Fourth, it is expected that China will reduce the access restrictions of foreign investment to the Chinese market through the establishment of a "negative list" system, which has been put into effect in the Shanghai free trade zone. Finally, the growth of G2 this year will push up China's exports and expand trade surplus.

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Deutsche Bank believes that in the long term, Deutsche Bank expects us dollar to be strong in the next few years, so the trend of RMB appreciation against the US dollar will end, but it will continue to appreciate for a basket of trade weighted currencies.

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< p > related links: < /p >

< p > in fact, we are trying to make a stronger inference that China's inflation center level may be down from about one to three years in the medium and short term perspective.

The logic of China's wholesale price of tradable goods, which can be approximately replaced by the PPI of industrial products, has been in deflation since 2012 and combined with the significant depreciation of the RMB nominal exchange rate in recent years. This may mean that the appreciation process of RMB's real exchange rate for nearly ten years is almost finished.

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< p > from the perspective of BA Lhasa Samuelson law, the appreciation of the long term real exchange rate in the past ten years has been triggered by the rapid upgrading of manufacturing labor productivity after China's accession to WTO.

If the hypothesis of the appreciation of the real exchange rate ended, it would be easier to be understood and accepted. In other words, it is easier to be understood and accepted. This means that the two major trends that have lasted for nearly ten years will be reversed. One is that the renminbi will no longer appreciate, and the two is the end of the era of high inflation and rapid price rise.

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Last week, the central bank carried out a repurchase of 177 billion yuan, which has invested 55 billion yuan from the net effect to the market, which is the first net investment of the central bank in 9 weeks. P

The capital market since April has not been so pessimistic as expected in the previous market.

As we have pointed out before, we should not ignore the initiative of the central bank and isolate the tightness of short-term liquidity in the market, because the central bank is the largest player in the money market.

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