Deflation Risk Is Looming And Export Prospects Are Not Optimistic.

From 10 onwards, relevant state departments will announce major economic indicators in November.

Analysts believe that consumer price index (CPI), industrial producer price index (PPI), export data and industrial added value growth will continue to fall.

In particular, the growth rate of industrial added value may slow to 5%, the lowest year-on-year growth rate in 14 years.

As the index that can best reflect the operation of enterprises, the growth of industrial added value has hit a new low, which means that the macro economy has entered "severe winter".

The risk of deflation is close to PPI, which will be the first to be announced on the 10 day. CICC expects that in November, the index of the price increase of raw materials representing the production of enterprises is at the level of 4%-5%; Goldman Sachs Gao Hua believes that the data is further reduced to 4.2%; the prediction of industrial bank is the most gallant, and PPI is expected to drop sharply to 3.0%-3.5% in November.

As early as a few months ago, the decline of the data meant a reduction in the cost of enterprises. But now, the rapid decline of PPI can only prove the seriousness of the decline in production and insufficient demand from another aspect.

In August this year, the PPI growth rate hit a 10.1% year high of 12 years, but dropped to 9.1% in September. In October, it dropped 3.5 percentage points to 6.6%.

CPI data, which directly represents inflation, will be released on the 11 th.

Haitong Securities estimates that CPI grew by 3% in November, of which 1 percentage points came from warping up factors.

Guotai Junan and Anxin securities both analyzed that the CPI data in November was about 2.9%.

CICC forecasts that CPI will grow by 2.4% to 2.9% in November.

Gao Huiqing, the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, believes that there is a possibility of deflation in China at present. But at the same time, we should see that the government is likely to introduce price control measures such as fuel tax and increase investment to stimulate the economy, which will help to reduce the risk of deflation.

The export prospect is not optimistic. As one of the "chariot" to pull the economy, the customs and trade administration will release its import and export data on the 10 day.

The Industrial Bank expects that, considering seasonal factors, export growth in November may continue to decline sharply to 14.5%-16.0%, and import growth will drop to around 10%.

CICC also believes that the growth rate of exports and imports will continue to slow and the trade surplus will remain high.

Data show that in October, China's export growth slowed down to 19.2%, and import growth dropped to 15.6%.

Experts pointed out that the data in October were not satisfactory, mainly due to the fact that most of the orders in October of this year were fixed last year, and the data in November are probably beyond imagination.

Industrial added value or innovation low industrial added value data will be released on 15 th.

Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, estimated that the growth rate of industrial added value in November could be reduced from 8.2% in October to less than 7% in terms of power generation and other indicators.

Ha Jin Ming, chief economist of CICC believes that the growth rate in November may be reduced to 6%.

Gao Hua Securities expects an increase of around 5%.

Even according to the optimistic forecast of 7%, the growth rate of this index will be the lowest year-on-year increase since 1994.

Hu Yuexiao, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shanghai securities, believes that the biggest harm to the real economy is not the vanishing effect of wealth, but the impact of rapid inflation upon deflation.

In October, power generation decreased by 4.3% for the first time throughout the year, indicating a full fall in industrial production.

People in the industry generally believe that although economic data have fallen sharply, people need not be pessimistic.

A series of macro-control policies promulgated by the State Council and the upcoming policies after the central economic work conference will effectively guarantee the steady and rapid growth of the macro-economy. The effect of these policies will be gradually reflected in 2009.

Yang Jing: editor in charge