RMB Exchange Rate "Five" Big Event Is Worrying.

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< p > the latest data from < a href= "http://fz.sjfzxm.com/" > China foreign exchange trading center < /a > show that in November 12th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1360, rebounding by 30 basis points compared with the previous trading day.

According to the reporter's calculation, this year, the RMB has appreciated 2.44%.

Fu Peng, chief macroeconomic adviser of China Galaxy futures, told reporters yesterday that the acceleration of RMB appreciation is conducive to promoting the internationalization process of RMB, while the inside is conducive to stimulating consumption.

In view of the current a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > RMB appreciation > /a > strong expectations, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will enter "Five" at the end of this year.

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< p > recently, the RMB exchange rate has maintained a strong appreciation under the combined effect of the accelerated influx of cross-border capital and the obvious trend of China's overall economic recovery and recovery.

Especially in the background of the substantial increase of foreign trade surplus in October, the pressure of a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp" > RMB exchange rate > /a > appreciation is increasing.

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< p > customs latest data show that the trade surplus in October increased to 31 billion 100 million US dollars, two times as much as last month.

In response, the report released by the ANZ bank shows that the steady trend of RMB appreciation and higher interest rates are still attracting large amounts of capital into the domestic market, and this has also led to a further rise in the appreciation of the renminbi.

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< p > it is worth mentioning that the near-term appreciation of the offshore a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > RMB to us dollar < /a > non principal deliverable forward (NDF) is obviously faster than the spot market price, and it is also supported by the strong expectation of RMB appreciation from another aspect.

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Huang Zhilong, deputy researcher of China P International Economic Exchange Center, believes that with the launch of the new round of reform, the efficiency of China's economy will be further enhanced.

Exchange rate is the most direct indicator of the effectiveness of national production, so the long-term trend of RMB appreciation may continue to exist.

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< p > in the face of the strong appreciation of the RMB, the market also expressed concern about the declining competitiveness of the export industry.

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< p > for this reason, Fu Peng believes that an important content of China's economic rotation and adjustment is to change the mode of foreign trade growth so that China's exports can be pformed from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, and from cost and price advantages to comprehensive competitive advantages.

Through the exchange rate marketization reform to speed up the pformation and upgrading of export trade, the appreciation of RMB can, to a certain extent, force export enterprises to upgrade and pform. Therefore, a certain appreciation of the renminbi is not a big obstacle to foreign trade.

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< p > there are also analysis that a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > Central Bank /a > should take practical actions to encourage private capital outflow and really encourage two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. Otherwise, under the condition of gradual opening of capital account, China will face greater pressure of appreciation and capital inflow.

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