The Cotton Market Is Strong. How Does The Future Market Go?

< p > storage and marketing policy, or market /p.
< p > < a > href= > //www.sjfzxm.com > cotton quotes > /a > after 2010 to 2011, the current price is oscillating in the range of 19500 to 20550 yuan / ton. The reason for the narrow price range is the introduction of the policy of purchasing and storing and dumping. As of March 1st, the total storage of 6 million 255 thousand tons of cotton in the whole country, including 2 million tons in the mainland, while the total volume of stocks was 1 million 919 thousand tons, and the total turnover was 591 thousand and 800 tons, with a turnover ratio of 30.83%. Because most of the high-grade cotton has been collected and stored by the state, the purchase of high-grade cotton by enterprises is mostly through the national reserve. As a matter of fact, the State Reserve has become the biggest buyer and seller in the market. Taking into account the current three rural policies to benefit farmers and people's confidence in the new government, the new year's purchase and storage protection policy has a strong continuity. The purchase price is flat or even slightly higher than last year. < /p >
< p > in addition, in April, the NDRC will increase the throwing reserves and increase the selling ratio of imported cotton and high-grade cotton, so as to balance the industrial layout. Boosted by the news, Zheng cotton prices rose sharply yesterday. < /p >
< p > planting area continued to decline < /p >
< p > in September of last year, the state raised a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > temporary storage and storage price to 20400 yuan / ton, converted to seed cotton about 8.7 yuan / kg. However, because the cotton quality in North China and other places generally can not reach this level, the purchase price of main planting areas such as Dezhou and Liaocheng is only 8 yuan / kg, and the low cotton price makes the income of farmers growing cotton less than three hundred and five hundred yuan. According to the survey of cotton farmers' planting intention this year, the cotton planting area in Dezhou will also decrease by 13%, which is 1 million 100 thousand mu in general, and the planting area in 2008 is 2 million 900 thousand mu. The nationwide situation is also not optimistic. In 2012, the cotton planting area in China was 4 million 700 thousand hectares, a decrease of 340 thousand hectares compared with the same period last year. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, the cotton planting area is 67 million 515 thousand mu this year, a decrease of 4 million 272 thousand mu compared with the same period last year, with a decrease of 6%. Combined with potential weather factors, cotton city will have an opportunity to fund speculation. < /p >
< p > demand is better than last year's < /p >.
< p > National Bureau of statistics data show that in the first two months of 2013, the industrial added value of above scale increased by 9.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points lower than that in December 2012. Among them, in February, the added value of above scale industries increased by 0.79% compared with January, which indicates that domestic demand has recovered. According to the latest data from the General Administration of customs, in February, the export volume of textiles and clothing was about US $16 billion 476 million, an increase of 69.65% over the same period last year, an increase of 54.91 percentage points over the same period last year, but a decrease of 33.27% in the annulus compared with that in January. The decrease was 35.72 percentage points larger than that in January. The increase in exports indicates that the orders of domestic textile enterprises are better than last year. As demand rebounds, domestic cotton prices have further strengthened the support level of 20000 yuan / ton. < /p >
< p > internal and external disk > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > cotton price difference < /a > narrowing < /p >
< p > cotton cotton was eye-catching because of its strong buying power. Its growth in March exceeded 6%, breaking 90 cents / pound. Although the domestic cotton price is still higher than that of the US cotton, the price difference is shrinking, which is close to the historical axis. Once the price difference reaches the axis, the domestic cotton price will rise. < /p >
< p > the reduction of domestic planting area and the recovery of downstream orders of textile enterprises are the basis for Zheng cotton's support at 20000 yuan / ton. The difference between the internal and external prices is close to the historical axis, and the spreads are in a reasonable range. Late weather factors become potential advantages. Relying on 20000 yuan / ton to buy 1309 contracts is a safe margin strategy, with a target price of 21000 yuan / ton. < /p >