Cotton Prices Are Affected By Negative Impact And Blocked.

In recent days, China's export growth slowed sharply in July, and the US Department of agriculture's report on supply and demand failed to trigger a sharp fall in the US cotton price.

After the import and export data of the General Administration of customs were released in August 10th,

Futures fell for a while, but it was widely believed that the US Department of agriculture's report on supply and demand of cotton (19275, -105.00, -0.54%) was about to be released later that night.

Textile external demand is still in the doldrums

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in August 10th, China exported 176 billion 940 million US dollars in July, an increase of only 1% over the same period last year, far below the 8% expected by economists.

Imports of US $151 billion 790 million increased by 4.7% compared to the same period last year, and the trade surplus was 25 billion 150 million US dollars, narrowing 16.8% compared with the same period last year.

In the first 7 months of this year, China's import and export value increased by 7.1% over the same period last year, down from 8% in the first 6 months.

Among them, exports grew by 7.8%, imports increased by 6.4%, and trade surplus amounted to $94 billion 110 million.

Compared with the overall data, textiles

Export data is even worse.

In July 2012, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $23 billion 889 million, an increase of 4.37% over the same period, a decrease of 8.1% over the same period last year.

Textile exports amounted to US $8 billion 2 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.06%, and clothing exports amounted to US $15 billion 887 million, a decrease of 8.13% over the same period last year.

US agriculture report unexpectedly bad

The monthly demand and supply report released by the US Department of agriculture in August 10th has raised the estimated cotton production in China and the US in 2012/2013: cotton production in 2012/2013 is estimated at 6 million 750 thousand tons, estimated at 6 million 640 thousand tons last month, and cotton production in the US 2012/2013 is estimated at 3 million 840 thousand tons, estimated at 3 million 700 thousand tons last month.

Cotton production in India decreased slightly from last month, with the latest estimate of 5 million 117 thousand tons and 5 million 225 thousand tons last month.

The world's cotton production forecast data were higher than in July, and USDA's latest estimate of global cotton production was 24 million 844 thousand tons, up from 24 million 780 thousand tons last month.

Before the US Department of agriculture's monthly report on supply and demand was released, it was widely expected that the US and India cotton production forecast would be reduced due to dry weather.

The USDA report also raised global cotton production while reducing global cotton consumption, resulting in a significant increase in final inventory forecast data.

The USDA report reduced global cotton consumption from 23 million 727 thousand tonnes in July to 23 million 548 thousand tons, and the end of global cotton stocks increased from 15 million 762 thousand tons to 16 million 257 thousand tons. The estimated data for the end of the world inventory increased by nearly 500 thousand tons.

Zheng cotton futures passive rise

We can make a superposition analysis of the US cotton futures contract in December and Zheng cotton CF1301 contract K-line graph. We can see that the rebound of the early Zheng cotton futures was obviously driven by the US cotton futures.

But once the US cotton futures fell due to bad news, Zheng cotton futures will fall below the pre oscillation interval again.

Overall, downstream demand for cotton remains weak, and investors should not expect too much of the rebound in cotton prices.

Although there are supporting factors such as the purchase and storage policy and the continuous reduction of cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, but in the

These factors are difficult to play a decisive role until demand is substantially improved.