Experts Say That China Sometimes Helps Itself To Save Europe.

Help or let go? The European debt crisis is a matter of life and death. This is a proposition before China's 3 trillion foreign exchange reserves.

1 year Greek bonds Rate of return When the price of credit default swap (CDS) breaking through the 100% and five year treasury bonds soared 937 basis points to become the world's most expensive CDS, will the Chinese government help as much as last year?

On the 2011 summer Davos forum in Dalian, the two sides launched a fierce confrontation. In September 14th, Premier Wen Jiabao expressed the belief that Europe and the United States could overcome the current difficulties. On the 15 day, Vice Premier Li Keqiang also expressed confidence that China would have confidence in the European economy and the euro, and that China would further expand its trade and investment with Europe and continue to make Europe one of the main investment markets.

However, neither the prime minister nor the Deputy Prime Minister made clear what specific measures China will take to help Europe. On the other hand, China's business and academic elites have almost unequivocally opposed buying European sovereign bonds again. Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Construction Bank, said that some countries overestimated China's role in the global economy. He did not think China could help the world get rid of the economic crisis.

Singapore's former Prime Minister Li Guangyao also said Singapore is not prepared to buy European bonds, even if China intends to rescue Europe, I am afraid it will be difficult to succeed.

In September 15th, a senior joint-stock bank said that the European debt crisis needs further observation. For China, helping the US and Europe sometimes helps itself, "we have been kidnapped."

This is not the time to rescue.

From the perspective of national strategy, the bank executives need to help Europe. "If the euro really collapses, the interest rate of the US dollar is bound to go higher under the global financial turmoil, which is even more disadvantageous to us." But now that the eurozone is still in a policy mess and the rescue plan is slow to come out, China should proceed cautiously.

Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, quoted China's financial magazine as saying that China is willing to lend a helping hand to some countries that meet the sovereign debt crisis, and buy some of their bonds. Investment 。

Yu Yongding, a former member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, firmly believes that China must wait and not help individual crisis countries in the absence of a clear road map to solve the European debt crisis in the euro zone.

"There are great risks in US debt and European debt," he said. "In the medium and long term, China has become deeper and deeper on the issue of US debt, and there is no need to enter another trap of European debt." In particular, he pointed out that China is not the lender of last resort to a troubled country in the face of the debt crisis.

Economist Li Daokui said at the Davos forum that EU bonds should not be bought blindly. At present, liquidity is not the biggest problem. Many governments have trillions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves, but "these governments should wait until the euro zone has made a clear commitment to implement a pragmatic policy to reform public finance, welfare system and economy before investing."

From Premier Wen Jiabao's position, China also has the conditions to help Europe. "China is still willing to expand its investment in the euro area, but the EU should also boldly look at China EU relations from a strategic perspective, such as recognizing China's full market economy status."

The euro collapses and worries emerge in China. Rescue "Not yet?

European banks in total crisis

Making investors hesitate, worse than Greece's default, is the future or collapse of the eurozone. A German market survey in August showed that 32% of Germans thought the euro zone could end in 2021.

The banking industry in Europe is already in a full-scale crisis, and the French banking industry, which is on the edge of deep water, is an example. In September 14th, Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, pointed out that the risk exposure of French banks to Greece, Ireland and Portugal was also very high, accounting for about 40% of the core capital of faxing bank and Paris bank, and the ratio of agricultural credit bank to 70%.

"German Commerzbank has a high exposure to Greece, Ireland and Portugal. At the same time, its 64 billion euro commercial real estate exposure is mainly held by Eurohypo, a subsidiary of Greece, which is 3 times its core capital and 10 times its exposure to Greece, Iran and Portugal." Peng Wensheng pointed out.

Ma Jun, a Deutsche Bank's Greater China economist, looks like the banking system is a crisis effect amplifier. In this regard, Italy and Spain are also much more serious than Greece and Portugal. For example, the balance of bonds issued by the Greek government and the Greek banks is about 63 billion euros held by the banking system, Portugal is 75 billion euros, while Italy and Spain are 410 billion and 325 billion respectively.