The Central Bank Again Raised Interest Rates By 0.25 Percentage Points &Nbsp, Managing Inflation Expectations.

Analysts believe that effective control of high inflation expectations and regulation of the property market may be the main starting point of the central bank's interest rate increase, and will also open up space for the central bank to further use quantitative tools.

The cumulative effect of the two increase in interest rates in a quarter will also have a certain impact on the future asset allocation pattern of residents.

Managing inflation expectations

Li Daokui, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said that monetary policy is turning to sound and the most important aspect is to manage inflation expectations. The most useful tool for managing inflation expectations is to regulate supply.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo believes that there are two main reasons for the central bank to raise interest rates:

First, the inflationary pressure is still relatively large. Raising interest rates helps stabilize residents' inflation expectations.

Two, in December, loans may once again exceed expectations. This year's breakthrough of 7 trillion and 500 billion of new credit targets has no suspense. Some interest demand is expected to be curbed by raising interest rates.

Li Huiyong said that from the structure of the interest rate hike, the interest rates for 2, 3 and 5 years were increased by 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.35% respectively. The rate of increase was higher than the benchmark interest rate, which helped stabilize the medium and long-term funds. The 3 and half year deposit rates were increased by 0.34% and 0.3% respectively, which was higher than the benchmark interest rate increase, which helped to raise the cost of capital and combat short-term capital speculation.

Analysts believe that since November, property market volume and housing prices rebounded rapidly, "land king" frequent, is also an important reason for raising interest rates.

In addition, Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of galaxy securities, said that the effect of raising interest rates at the end of this year and the beginning of next year will be different from those of micro-blog.

The central bank chooses to raise interest rates at the end of the year, which means that all credit asset prices will be priced according to this interest rate next year.

At the same time, it also increased the expected interest rate adjustment at the beginning of next year.

It may not lead to massive inflow of hot money.

In the second half of this year, foreign exchange accounted for a rapid growth, increasing the pressure of liquidity management of the central bank.

In October, the newly increased foreign exchange accounted for 519 billion 47 million yuan, a record high in 30 months.

In November, foreign exchange holdings fell to 319 billion 600 million yuan, still high throughout the year.

Us quantitative easing policy has led to global liquidity and hot money has accelerated into the emerging economies.

China's central bank's interest rate increase means a widening gap between the US and China.

In this regard, industry experts said that the increase in interest rates will not lead to large-scale influx of hot money.

Li Daokui said that raising interest rates would attract some "hot money" inflows when the interest rates of major currencies such as the US dollar and yen were close to zero interest rates and the expected appreciation of the renminbi was stronger.

The interest rate hike is very good.

European and American countries are facing Christmas holidays. The stock market is closed and residents are on holiday. The pfer of funds is not convenient, which is not conducive to the influx of "hot money".

At the same time, the central bank's interest rate rises when market expectations are weak, and it is also a game with "hot money", which aims to make the speculative short-term capital of "hot money" difficult to predict and prevent its large-scale inflow.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, believes that since the Federal Reserve will maintain a low interest rate in the coming period, the interest rate spreads between China and the United States will continue to expand after the interest rate rises, which will have a certain guiding effect on hot money, but the factors that really affect the inflow of hot money are the exchange rate level and asset price level, and the spread factor is relatively weak.