International Agencies Predict That China Will Raise Interest Rates By &Nbsp; And How Far Is The Two Increase In Interest Rates?
In the face of domestic prices rising, we should welcome "raise interest" with "applause"?
"In order to curb inflation expectations, China needs to further raise interest rates."
The world bank has opened a prescription for China; the Standard Chartered Bank issued a report that China may raise interest rates again by the end of the year; and Credit Suisse boldly predicted that the Chinese government might raise interest rates by 50 basis points in a few weeks.
The industry seems to have reached an agreement that China's currency market needs to "cool down".
Such expectations were positively answered by the capital market: on Tuesday, the yield of the open market one-year central bank issue rose by more than 5 basis points unexpectedly; on Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3000 and Shenzhen index dropped by 7%.
Increase interest
Thunder is booming.
"We will not let inflation go."
Ma Delun, deputy governor of the central bank, made a high-profile statement two days later, and the National Bureau of statistics released the data. In October, the inflation rate soared to 4.4%, far higher than 3% of the official target.
"Inflation has become a reality, and the central bank has acted."
In November 14th, Song Hongwei, an analyst at Pu Hua consulting market, told reporters in the international finance daily that the propaganda of central bank officials was meant to be moral warning, and the market action was also carried out at the same time.
In the face of the expected high CPI index, the central bank announced that it will increase the deposit reserve ratio of all commercial banks by 0.5 percentage points from November 16th.
This is the fourth time the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio this year.
"The deposit reserve rate increased by 0.5 percentage points and the amount of capital tightening is between 350 billion yuan and 400 billion yuan."
Song Hongwei believes that this part of the renminbi fund raised by raising the reserve ratio, because commercial banks through the central bank exchange.
Foreign exchange assets
RMB funds eventually returned to commercial banks.
Wang Guogang, director of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, thinks that raising the deposit reserve rate has only the guiding effect of tight money, but lacks operational effect.
As a matter of fact, the effect of tightening the credit policy has not been achieved.
New loans continued to maintain a high level of 587 billion 700 million yuan in October, about 100000000000 yuan higher than expected, while M2 supply continued to remain high at 19%.
In the face of high foreign exchange and continuous inflow of hot money, the market generally believes that the two rate hike is inevitable.
Standard Chartered Bank, Credit Suisse and other institutions have expressed interest rate hike is about to start.
"It is estimated that the central bank will raise interest rates in the fourth quarter of 2010 and increase interest rates by two times in the one or two quarter of next year."
Wang Zhihao, director of Greater China research at Standard Chartered Bank, said.
Credit Suisse is boldly predicted that the Chinese government may raise interest rates by 50 basis points in a few weeks.
"Pool" effect to be tested
"Raising interest rates has far-reaching implications and should be treated with caution."
Peking University
Professor Cao Heping believes that China should strive for economic pformation, which should be prudent at this time.
He Yifeng, senior researcher of Hongyuan securities, believes that after the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy announced in the United States, China has a high risk of raising interest rates continuously.
"If we control inflation unilaterally, we will increase the pressure of RMB appreciation and affect exports, thus putting downward pressure on the gradual recovery of economic growth."
However, the central bank has little room to adjust the deposit reserve ratio.
After the completion of this adjustment, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions changed from 17% to 17.5%, which is the same as the highest historical level in 2008. Since the beginning of the year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions and implemented the differential reserve ratio. The deposit reserve ratio of four banks in industry, agriculture, China and construction has reached 18%, creating a new historical record of deposit reserve ratio.
In response to the problem of liquidity, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed "pool" theory.
He said at a summit that China could take measures to hedge the total amount, that is, if short-term speculative capital flows into the country, it will be put into a pool through this measure, and will not be allowed to flood into the whole Chinese real economy. "When it needs to withdraw, it will be released from the pool and let it go."
In this way, the impact of abnormal capital flow on China's economy can be greatly reduced.
In November 12th, Ma Delun, deputy governor of the central bank, conducted a deep excavation in Shanghai.
He said that the so-called "pool" is a policy combination, which includes adjustment of deposit reserve ratio, management of foreign exchange settlement and open market operation.
In fact, the regulatory tools mentioned by Ma De Ren have been launched in recent years.
The deposit reserve ratio has been raised for the fourth time in the year. The administration of foreign exchange settlement has come up with a new regulation. The balance of the position has been administered at a lower limit. In the open market operation, the yield of the one year central bank has also been raised.
Some experts have analyzed that the central bank has not yet entered the cycle of raising interest rates, and hoped that these monetary policy combinations could be shown in subsequent market feedback.
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