Reuters Survey: RMB Is Expected To Rise To 6.49 Against The US Dollar In The Coming Year.

Analyst forecasts

* during the year, the renminbi rose to 6.63 against the US dollar.

* about 3.1% to 6.49 in the coming year.

Beijing's Reuters survey of 27 analysts shows that the yuan will continue to rise to 6.63 against the US dollar in the year, and then slow down. The coming year (end of 2011 9) is expected to rise by about 3% to 6.49..

On Wednesday, the US House of Representatives passed the "monetary reform to promote the fair trade act" to pressure China to allow the renminbi to accelerate appreciation. The Chinese Ministry of commerce also responded immediately that the countervailing investigation conducted on the basis of exchange rate did not conform to the WTO regulations. The long-standing trade and employment disputes between China and the United States intensified.

However, analysts interviewed believe that the RMB will not appreciate rapidly because of the political pressure in the United States. The principle of "gradual and controllable" will remain the guideline of the Central Bank of China.

"The pace of RMB appreciation will not change." Guotai Junan

Wang Jun, a researcher at China International Economic Exchange Center, said that China's exchange rate is still under control in order to ensure the necessary competitiveness of export enterprises and the stable employment situation.

Although China's economic recovery is better than expected, but the international economic environment is uncertain, China's economic structural reform has just begun, consumption is insufficient and external demand is hard to come by, just as premier Wen Jiabao said last week, "there is no foundation for a significant appreciation of RMB."

CICC's latest report also said that unless the dollar continues to depreciate sharply, the possibility of RMB appreciation relative to the US dollar will continue to accelerate.

Recently, the appreciation of the renminbi and the weakness of the US economy have led to a decline in the US dollar and a sharp rise in international gold prices. Gold prices hit a record high on Wednesday, breaking the record for the tenth time in 12 trading days.

The people's Bank of China held the third quarter 2010 regular meeting on Wednesday, saying that the next stage will be further improved.

* the US dollar is weak, and the pace of appreciation has accelerated slightly or **{page_break}

According to the median estimate of analysts' forecasts, the appreciation of the RMB to the end of the year is about 1%, and the cumulative value of appreciation at the end of the third quarter of 2011 is about 3%., so the rate of appreciation will be slightly faster in this year than next year.

The RMB of the China foreign exchange trading center dropped to 6.6912 yuan on Thursday's close to the dollar, rising 1.74% in September, the biggest monthly increase in 2005. Since the central bank announced its enhanced exchange rate elasticity in June, the yuan has appreciated by 2.02%. against the US dollar.

The political pressure from the United States or the main reason for the rapid appreciation of the RMB in September is due to the steady recovery of China's economy during the same period. There is no need for internal adjustment of exchange rate. The political pressure before and after the US general election and the trend of the US dollar will become an important concern for determining the rise and fall of the RMB.

A trader in Southern China said, "the RMB pressure will not be too small before the mid-term elections in the United States, but appreciation should also be controlled."

"Taking into account the momentum of the depreciation of the US dollar will continue until the end of this year, there will be little room for appreciation in the short term," Standard Chartered said.

The latest report of Standard Chartered Bank said that despite the accelerated appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in September, the dollar weakened significantly and the exchange rate of RMB was lower than that of a basket of currencies. The benchmark index of the Standard Chartered currency traded against a basket of trade weighted currencies is now down from the basic level of 6 in mid December. The nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of 2.7%. has dropped to a new low since the resumption of the exchange rate reform.