Guantong Futures: Downstream Consumption Is Booming; PTA Bears Are Weak

today PTA 1101 opened at 7864 yuan, slightly higher than 7900 yuan in the last test after the opening, but the short seller was willing to suppress. It gradually fell back to 7830 yuan in the session, then slowly rose, and finally closed at 7856 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous trading day. There were 509116 daily transactions, and the positions decreased by 11490 to 251656.

Thursday New York Crude oil futures in October fell by 0.42 dollars to close at 74.25 dollars per barrel; Brent October futures fell 0.70 dollars to close at 77.47 dollars per barrel. Asian PX rose 3 to 960 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea, while European PX was basically stable at 965-970 US dollars/ton FOB Rotterdam. The PTA market shows a trend of adjustment. The mainstream of the internal market is basically maintained at 7400-7450 yuan/ton, and the external market of Taiwan goods is about 905 dollars/ton. There is little actual negotiation. The MEG market is in a stalemate, with the mainstream of the internal market at about 6500 yuan/ton and the price of the external market slightly confused, with the mainstream at about 805-815 dollars/ton.

Receiving factory goods in stock Under the influence of resource shortage, the price of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester staple continued to rise. Today, the mainstream ex factory quotation of 1.4D polyester staple rose to 9850-9950 yuan/ton, and the market inquiry atmosphere was fair. After the focus of polyester market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose generally today, the enthusiasm of downstream buying was high; Along with the downbeat FDY in the early stage, the price of silk has also recovered to a certain extent. The price of silk has basically risen between 100-200, and some regions are reluctant to sell. Driven by the rising trend of polyester in the downstream, coupled with some order chasing behavior in the market at the end of yesterday, for example, after 16:00, a 1000 ton semi gloss chip in Jiangsu was sold at 9270 yuan/ton (self raised for acceptance in March); This morning, the focus of semi optical slicing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued the rising pattern at the beginning of the week, and the mainstream reported 9300-9400 yuan/ton (acceptance).

At present, with the decline of gasoline consumption in the autumn, the refinery operating rate has declined, PX supply is relatively tight, supporting the stability of PX prices. At the same time, the peak consumption season of PTA downstream has begun to show signs. Yesterday's sharp fall in PTA prices did not affect the popularity of the downstream market. Today's polyester product prices maintain an upward trend, reflecting to some extent that PTA consumption tends to be strong.

The good fundamentals made the suppression of short positions slightly weak, and the intraday bottoming picked up, while the bulls left the market on their own initiative, and the futures price only slightly declined. It is expected that the market confidence is gradually recovering, so the operation next week will be dominated by a more optimistic approach. Focus on macroeconomic data over the weekend.