In May, The National Trade Surplus Was 7 Billion 750 Million US Dollars.

In June 7th, the securities market weekly and the CCTV2 "market analysis room" jointly launched the "crystal ball China macroeconomic consensus in May" shows that in May, China's trade surplus survey averaged 7 billion 750 million US dollars, with a median value of US $7 billion 500 million, a marked increase over the April US $1 billion 680 million.

In addition, the highest value of the survey was US $22 billion, with a minimum value of -78.5 billion.

Fu Lei, a macroeconomic researcher at 600109.SH, said in a written interview with reporters that in the future, with the decline in domestic demand, imports would fall faster, and the surplus would be brought back to routine. It is estimated that the surplus in 2010 will reach US $101 billion 500 million, and the pulling of GDP will be -1.9%.

Shi Lei, a senior analyst at 601988.SH (03988.HK) financial market headquarters in China, also told reporters in a telephone interview that the rate of return would be faster than the rate of decline in export growth, so the surplus situation would be improved. It should be around $100 billion a year, and the deficit in March would be difficult to reproduce.

On May 20th, Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of Commerce, said at the third Pan Yangtze River Delta Economic Forum held in Yiwu, Zhejiang, that China's annual trade surplus in 2010 will not exceed $50 billion, much lower than market expectations.

Customs data show that China's trade surplus in 2009 was 196 billion 70 million US dollars, down 34.2% from the same period last year.

Wang Zhihao, a research director of Greater China in Standard Chartered Bank, and Li Wei, economist at Li.Wei, also expressed a slightly optimistic attitude towards the trend of surplus in a research report sent to reporters.

They said: "with the slowdown in import growth, the trade surplus will rise again in the second half of 2010, and domestic inflation pressure will also help to increase the trade surplus."

However, Standard Chartered Bank estimates that the timing of the "decoupling" of the renminbi against the US dollar may have been missed considering the European debt crisis and the rise in the effective exchange rate of the renminbi.

"Before that, we expect the RMB to be decoupled from the US dollar in the second half of 2010 and a slight appreciation of 2% against the US dollar since the beginning of 5-6.

But now, we think that the time of decoupling will extend to the three quarter of this year at least until the global economic recovery is more steady, the US dollar is weakening, the international pressure on RMB appreciation has picked up again, and China's trade surplus has resumed.

If there is no sign of stabilization in the global economy, the renminbi may continue to be pegged to the US dollar.

The 51 agencies involved in the survey included CICC, 601988.SH (03988.HK), 601328.SH (03328.HK), Guotai Junan Securities, Everbright Securities (601788.SH), Haitong Securities (600837.SH), China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), Bank of America Merrill Lynch, France Paris securities, Standard Chartered Bank and HSBC.