Cotton Price Operation Conjecture In The Second Half Of 2015

In 2015/2016, we began to bid farewell to the year of oversupply for the global cotton supply and demand balance sheet. However, in the overall tight balance, China's national cotton storage sword is hanging high.

If we throw only 1 million tons of non - storage and storage of 500 thousand tons of machine - picked cotton, then the new year

Cotton prices will continue to slump during the period.

If we reserve 1 million tons of storage and storage of 500 thousand tons, then the global cotton prices will bottom out successfully.

If the 1 million tonnes of the reserve are disposed of only 500 thousand to 700 thousand tons due to pricing factors, the market pressure is not great.

If

Cotton plus a certain amount of

To solve the demand of textile enterprises for high-end cotton blending, the price of cotton will be relatively strong, and the price of cotton harvester will be increased, so we can focus on buying the opportunity of ICE throwing cotton.

If the amount of dumping is unlimited, combined with the rumor of 13500 yuan / ton of the dumping price, Chen cotton will reduce the price by 1000 yuan / ton after the re inspection, and the spot paction price may be around 12500 yuan / ton.

The price is basically the bottom of Zheng cotton's final release.

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As of 25 days, the price of 137 grade long staple cotton mill in Awati, Akesu, Xinjiang was 28200 yuan / ton (public inspection, including tax), 237 class 27300 yuan / ton, 337 grade 26200 yuan / ton, since the beginning of May, the mainstream price of local long staple cotton has been reduced by 300-500 yuan / ton.

Besides the drop in prices, factory sales progress is slow.

A ginning plant in Awati has processed 3900 tons of long staple cotton this year, and has sold 2700 tons so far, but there has not been a deal in nearly a week.

"I'm afraid the long staple cotton is going to cool down."

The person in charge of the company is more worried about the future market.

During this period, many market participants showed pessimism to the long staple cotton market.

Many people said that in April, it was "hot", in May, "cold wind cold", I do not know how long this situation will last? There is no improvement possible? A cotton businessman talked about the current situation, he thinks the price of long staple cotton is very likely to fall, there are the following reasons.

First, the early ginning factory "only hoarding not sell" encountered a bite.

In the 3-4 month, most of the Xinjiang ginning plants were selling prices, most of which were reluctant to sell, or "hoarding not sold".

Facts have proved that at the end of 3-4, domestic long staple cotton rose nearly 1000 yuan / ton, but sales progress was slow.

Taking a factory in Awati County as an example, the factory completed only 350 tons of trading volume in April, which is about 1/10 of the total inventory.

It is too late for cotton ginning plants to feel that it is unwise to "hoarse" blindly.

Second, the pressure of funds.

The majority of Xinjiang enterprises have to "double knot zero" loans to the end of June.

But at present, most enterprises have not finished 50% sales of long staple cotton.

Many companies have responded, and the bank has already issued a reminder to repay the loan. If the bank fails to repay the loan, the bank will cancel its next year's loan qualification.

But these can not be said that the long staple cotton is "at the end of the day", the so-called "endless", there is no way out.

It must be said that this year's quota policy has helped the domestic long staple cotton, which directly leads to the high quality cotton still can not get in.

According to traders from Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places, since May, the United States and cotton have concentrated on Hong Kong, and Ukrainian cotton and Central Asian cotton have arrived in large numbers.

Despite the fact that the bonded area has been "overflowing", the US cotton is still not selling.

The key is that the quota of textile enterprises is limited, and they can only make quotas "long and thin" and use them on the "knife edge".

China's macro-economy continues to heat up.

This year, the central bank has lowered interest rates for the two time. Once it is lowered, the direction of monetary easing policy is very clear, and the decision to rescue the market is also very large.

Under such circumstances, copper, oil, agricultural products and other bulk commodities have also rebounded.

Long staple cotton is concentrated in the hands of some large cotton traders, which is more conducive to a firm price.

A market person said: "therefore, do not fear the clouds to cover your eyes and go out of the world.

Recently, although long staple cotton has dropped somewhat, it does not mean that it has entered a downward path, and the trend of upward oscillation in the latter stage is still the same.

What is the trend of late staple cotton market? It is worth looking forward to.